Saturday, 13 January 2018

Metro Baltic Horizons & Ronan Reid . Jan 2018

Not to much has changed over the past week . Except for some news from Our Off Market shares .
Firstly Metro Baltic has resurfaced with an AGM , pretty soon .
Secondly , BSP has at last bought some land on the Bulgarian coast / Looks like some sort of camping hotel site may be in order .
Thirdly odd changes to share ownership at Churchill Mining .
And A new website for Egpi Firecreek .   Joyzah coming .


On market share portfolio ;

Rurelec     2K
Aortech     4K
Pathfinder 2K
Akers         1K

-----------------------------------------------------------------


As usual we have coagulated yet again .
S&P hits 2700 ,which is well ahead of schedule and bodes well that the oncoming dip will not be a 2008 style crash . But , a 25% dip ( re 2011 ) .

There are still many bargains out there in the market , happy hunting .
A bit disappointing that Yiangos decided to bail from Aortech at 50p , when one feels there may be multiples ahead of up to £10 given great news . £1 on good news OR 20p on Bad news .

Your money /  Your Choice ............




Michael you should be at least 50% in gold now please .
Even more would be better ...............


    bbr391 The Oracle of Staines

Saturday, 6 January 2018

AIMING FOR 2034 ( Making YOU Money)

My research from 2009

My first purchase of shares was a bit daunting.
Having stepped into the cold water on this date,I have learnt oodles.
Being overall in slightly positive territory, thus far.It should have been oh so much better.
One learns to one`s cost that overtrading is costly.The contract for difference experience also.
Both have cost dearly so far.

Time for change ;
Make your choice (on individual shares ) and sit and hold.This applies particularly to small shares.Not so with larger one`s which ,on the whole follow the indexes.
Indexes are a safe place ?
  Dow Jones Estimates ;        At end of year :
                                           2009E

                      2013           14,000
                      2016           20,000
                      2019           24,000
                      2022           28,000
                      2025           35,000
                      2028           42,000
                      2031           53,000

       This is allowing for no overshock,as experienced in 2009.. Although by 2031 we may be pretty close to another one.So,always be prepared.
 Bottom estimate 2031 could be as low as 20,377.

    History ,as usual is a great guide.Use it to your own advantage and always keep your beady eyes on the market discombobulations.


                       Happy days for bulls , not so happy for bears.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/02/2016

          Deflation Evasion .,,,,,,
 will be avoided by the possibility that
All commodities look to have turned a corner . The market now has scope to continue the Mother of All Rallies .
  Gold UP $1200   Bottomed at $1000
  Oil   Up  $32 Bottomed at $28

 As usual I was within 20% of calling it correct on oil with second attempt . With Gold first try , bully for you , I hear you cry .
 ONE Must learn to be a little more patient .
For me the market has all eyes on oil at present and today could have major significance in trend formation.

An uptrend in oil ( THUS ALL commodities ) will add to inflation over the coming years .
One should expect a nice gentle uptrend in the oil price from here , which will keep inflation in the picture for us all from here on in .
Therfore a 25% drop in the S&P was transitory and an anticipated minimum correction and not reversal "Unlucky BEARS " .
Bears have had a good time , especially with oil . Over the past two years . .

  THE BULLS ARE BACK IN TOWN .




   Dow Jones Estimates ;                      At end of year :
                                        2009E                2016E

                      2013           14,000
                      2016           20,000
                      2019           24,000               22,000
                      2022           28,000               25,000
                      2025           35,000               30,000
                      2028           42,000               36,000
                      2031           53,000               42,000

I have had to rework these figures as major indices tend not to give the actual market variance    .Mainly because the DOW components are established and not dynamic companies
Perhaps I will change to the S&P and re-do this paper .
As usual my workings leave a bit to be desired . Re-estimated for 2016 year end .
They are BELOW $$$$$$$$$$$$

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personal
Standard & Poors Estimates

                                         2009E               2016E
               
                      2009           1000
                      2013           1500
                      2016           2000
                      2019           2200               2200
                      2022           2500               2500
                      2025           2800               2800
                      2028           3200               3100
                      2031           3600               3400
                      2034           3800               3600



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal Valuations
Estimated value of Gold  $
               
                      2016           1000
                      2019           1200        
                      2022           1400        
                      2025           1700        
                      2028           1900        
                      2031           2100        
                      2034           2400        

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 jan 2017

  No need to update what has turned out .Thus far to be correct..........
Index & DOW/S&P wise .

Oil now at $50 ++,should rise to account for costs which are presently $46 per barrel .
Should head towards $70 by 2018 .



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Jan 2018

 All present and correct .
Gold will be reasonable value for long -termers at $1300 .
By 2036 It may be closer to $5000






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Underneath we have some interesting historical stuff ;

100 Years of Stock Market History (log graph thru 2012)

In times of turmoil, such as a financial crisis, I look for one of those big charts with an arrow that says, “You are here.” It is in that spirit that I offer the following long-term log graph summarizing over 100 years of DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) performance / history. I will defer most of my analysis until later, and for this post rely mainly on what one of my statistics professors used to call “interocular trauma.”

Dow Jones 100-Year Stock Market History Chart


stock market history chart year-end 2012 (Dow Index closing prices since 1900 log graph)
Dow Index 100-Year History Chart


Stock Market Performance Since 1900 Has Alternated Between Excitement and Disinterest


Above is a graph of stock market (Dow Jones) performance since 1900 (click on image to enlarge it). It shows year-end closing prices through 2012. (See Yearly Returns for a bar chart of the returns each year.) While some describe this history as
a steady long-term upward trend, to me it appears to show alternating periods of excitement and disinterest. For example, the periods from ’33 to ’65, and from ’82 to ’99 were periods of excitement. From ’33 to ’65 the average return was about 7% per year, plus dividends -- for a total of approximately 10%. From ’82 to ’99 the average return was about 15% per year, again plus dividends – though dividends in recent decades were significantly smaller than they were in earlier decades.

The Long Flat Periods


On the other hand, the 1905 close of 96 was not permanently eclipsed until 28 years later -- 1933; the 1965 close of 969 was not permanently eclipsed until 17 years later -- 1982. I use the word “disinterest” to characterize these long flat periods. (Note: This is a log graph. If you are not familiar with them, see About Stock Market Log Graphs.)

In the long term, you would expect that stock market performance should approximate the performance of the underlying businesses. Therefore, an obvious interpretation of the chart is that the stock market periodically gets ahead of itself by increasing faster than the underlying businesses, and then has to wait for the “real” value of the underlying businesses to catch up during the long, flat periods of “disinterest.” If that is the case, we could well be in another one of those periods of “disinterest” -- though when you’re actually in one of those periods, you may find other words more descriptive….

Note: The above chart and discussion ignores the impact of inflation. To see the long flat periods adjusted for inflation, see 100 Years of Inflation-Adjusted Stock Market History. Warning: not for the faint of heart!

The Monthly Update, & Adding the 25-Year Moving Average as a Support Level

The December 2012 Stock Market Performance post includes a recap of the most recent month and year-to-date, plus comparisons to important milestones such as all-time highs and crash lows. In addition, it includes the most recent projection of 10-year market returns. The 25-year moving average can be a useful addition to the above graph. As discussed in Dow 25-Year Moving Average History, the market has very rarely fallen below its 25-year moving average. That is, historically this moving average has been a reliable support level during secular bear markets. That graph is updated infrequently, as appropriate.

_____________________________________________________________________

Average Stock Market (Dow) Returns


The average return starts at 11.8% for the one-year returns, drops rather sharply to 10.6% for the two-year periods, and then declines gradually to 9.9% for the 100-year periods. Historically, the longer the holding period the less likely it was to end with the investor losing money, and, the closer the return has been to the long-term average of around 10%. In fact, the maximum, minimum and average returns are all converging toward the long-term average return.

Based on this history, it appears that readers who are planning to buy and hold for 100 years or more are "assured" of performance very close to the long-term average return of around 10% per year -- regardless of when they buy. For those of us holding for shorter periods, there is a significant difference between the minimum and maximum annual rates of return that gets smaller the longer we hold.


Checking through history ,
As they happen every 4.4 years on average.

   

Statistical response to a DOWN January

A down January is a bad omen for the stock market. Yale Hirsch of the The Stock Traders Almanac suggests that since 1950, every down January in the S&P500 preceded a new or extended bear market, or in some cases, a flat market. They go on to further suggest that down January’s are followed by substantial declines averaging -13%
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has returned 24 percent on average in years it’s risen in both January and February, a bullish sign for 2013, according to S&P.
The S&P 500 climbed in both January and February 26 times since 1945, Sam Stovall, S&P’s New York-based chief equity strategist, wrote in a note. All 26 years ended with positive returns when including dividends, the data show.

The last two years have seen back-to-back gains in the first two months, leading the S&P 500 to a 16 percent advance in 2012 and a 2.1 percent rise in 2011, including dividends. The biggest advance when the index rose in January and February was the 52 percent rally in 1954. 2013 saw a nice 27% rise .

The two "largest" price drops during this bull market came when the "Fed was (getting) out of the market," says Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey. Both times, when the Fed withdrew stimulus, the market suffered a drop of more than 10% -- the conventional definition of a correction.
In 2010, the S&P 500 fell 10.3% from May 12 to June 7. And in 2011, the benchmark index plunged 17.3% between July 7 and August 8, Bespoke data show.
As investors around the world continue adjusting to the idea of less market support – or "the end of free money" -- from central banks globally, including the Fed, the market is likely to stay volatile, says Ron Florance, managing director of investment strategy at Wells Fargo Wealth Management.
"The Fed's action represents the continuing transition that is occurring in the global economy following the financial downturn and the recovery period that has followed," Florance says. "We expect financial markets to respond with a measure of volatility as the 'normalization' process unfolds."

Should you sell in April and go away?
It’s an odd question, I admit. Widespread talk of selling usually doesn’t begin until late April, when investors each year are reminded of the famous seasonal pattern “sell in May and go away.”
But it’s precisely because it is so well-known that some followers of this seasonal tendency wonder if they should act sooner rather than later. Waiting until May Day runs the risk of selling at the same time that a large number of other investors are doing the same.
Fortunately, we have real-world data on two attempts to get a jump start on the “sell in May and go away” pattern. The first is the “Almanac Investor Newsletter,” edited by Jeffrey Hirsch, and the other is Sy Harding’s “Street Smart Report.”
Both pursue surprisingly similar modifications to this basic seasonal pattern. Each relies on a technical indicator known as MACD to pinpoint the precise day on which they enter and exit the market. (MACD is a short-term momentum indicator, standing for moving average convergence divergence.)
The Hulbert Financial Digest has track records for both market timers’ modifications of this seasonal pattern dating to mid-2002, nearly 13 years ago. The HFD calculates their returns on the assumption that, when they are invested in stocks, they earn the return of the Wilshire 5000 Index; otherwise they are assumed to be invested in 90-day Treasury bills.





Annualized return                                   Risk level (100 = market)                                                    
Buying & holding                                                                       7.7%

Mechanically selling every 4/30 and reinvesting every 10/31    7.9%

 S.Harding modification of “Sell in May and go away                 9.2%

Almanac Investor’s modification  “Sell in May and go away       8.0%




As you can see from the accompanying table, a buy-and-hold strategy since mid-2002 has produced a 7.7% annualized return. Automatically going to cash every May Day and re-entering the market on Halloween would have done slightly better with a lot less risk — which is why it comes out well ahead of buying and holding on a risk-adjusted basis (as indicated by a higher Sharpe Ratio).
Harding’s modification of the Halloween Indicator did even better still, producing a 9.2% annualized return over the same period — 1.5 percentage points per year more than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern, and 1.3 percentage points ahead of a buy-and-hold. Even better, this market-beating return was produced with 39% less risk, which means it’s even further ahead of buy-and-hold on a risk-adjusted basis.
In fact, Harding’s modification of the Halloween Indicator is in fourth place for risk-adjusted performance since mid-2002 out of the 91 stock-market-timing strategies the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period.
To be sure, Hirsch’s modification of the Halloween Indicator performed less well than Harding’s, producing an 8% annualized return while incurring 35% less risk than the market itself. It still came out ahead of buy-and-hold, however, on both an unadjusted and a risk-adjusted basis.
What about this April? To be informed when those two advisers actually trigger their “sell” signals, you would need to subscribe to their services. But one way in which their MACD-based systems could trigger an early “sell” signal (but not the only way) would be for the market to be strong for a few days and then quickly drop back.
Given the stock market’s impressive rally on Monday, such a “sell” signal could come fairly soon. If that happens, followers of this seasonal pattern might consider going to cash — thereby taking off the rest of the spring and summer from stressing about the market.




Three Losing days begin the year

In an email on Tuesday evening, Jonathan Krinsky at MKM Partners noted that not only does the S&P usually gain ground when it starts the year with three losses, but the index has performed better than its historical average in those years. 
During the eight years since 1928 that the S&P started with three-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.36% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.53% on average. 
Via Krinsky, here is what happSince 1928, the Standard & Poor's 500 has started the year with three straight losing days eight times.
ened during each of those eight years:
  • 2014: Started with three straight down days. Year ended +11.39%.
  • 2005: Started with three straight down days. Year ended +3%.
  • 1991: Started with six straight down days. Year ended +26.31%.
  • 1985: Started with three straight down days. Year ended +26.33%.
  • 1978: Started with seven straight down days. Year ended +1.06%.
  • 1977: Started with three straight down days. Year ended -11.50%.
  • 1968: Started with three straight down days. Year ended +7.66%.
  • 1956: Started with three straight down days. Year ended +2.62%.
Last week, we noted another market factoid from Krinsky, which showed that this was the first time since 2008 that the market finished one year and started the next with losing sessions. 
That is something that happened 10 times since 1980, so it's not all that uncommon, and in seven of those 10 years the S&P gained ground. 
Of course, this makes some sense: Stock markets have spent more time going up than going down

Bad People List ;

 David Ross                                          
 Nigel Spring & Grahame Sewell
 Peter Lobbenburg
 Mark Opzoomer & Rob Gorle
 Stuart Doughty
 Ian Johnson
 Sean Nutley
 Ray Horney

Peter Procopis   (  Under Revision )
Howard Shore      (  Under Revision )

Mr Mart Habakuk        (  Under Revision )
Mr James Kenny       (  Under Revision )
Mr Paul McGuinness            (  Under Revision )
Margarita Novikova            (  Under Revision )
Katrin Karemäe            (  Under Revision )
Margarita Novikova       (  Under Revision )
Dominic Bacon
Lindsay McNeile
General Jacinto Veloso     
Diogo Cavaco                      
Rachel Rhodes                        
Graeme Hossie                         
Benjamin Lee                           
Vasile  Timis      


Technoplus
Robin Ashton
Tracey Graham
Sterling Brinkley
Tom Roberts
Geoff Brady
Ciaran Morton
Lord St John of Bletso  
Solomon Passy 
Ionut Costea 
Robin James 
Donald Lake 
Charles Jillings 

 Mark Tincknell 
Roy Gardner
Stephen Hill

Andrzej Sobczak
Nicholas Myerson

Peter RS Earl
Colin Emson
Marcelo Blanco

Christopher Howell 

James Menzies
Jonathan M Copus
Mike Buck
Charles Morgan

Mark Molyneux 

Craig Cameron, 46, of St Brelade

Frank Timis / Timis Corporation 

Robin Farrell and Robert Addison
John Russsell  McGoldrick
William Michael Ford
James Michael Markgraf Phil Jackson

Michael Hitchcock
 Andrew Perloff

Mr Frank Maguire

Paul Bell 

I Reserve the right to add or remove as appropriate

A small Update to Making YOU Money 06/01/2018

This year we hope Mr Brown At Aortech International  brings forward his promise of a new company with new aspirations

Secondly , Pathfinder  & Mozambique settle their differentials .

Thirdly , Rurelec actually achieves a fair valuation .


--------------------------------------------------------------


As an aside ,yes the market has done well since 2009 .
At 3.3 as a book value , there is still upward momentum available .
Although this Is the year when correction territory is likely ;
That is a 25% drop not a full blown crash . 
Which is liable to overcome us in 2034 +- , two years .

It is all  on the bbr391 blog .which I update with some infrequency .


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Aortech       4K
Pathfinder   3K
BSP            3K
Rurelec       2K
Others        1K

Sunday, 31 December 2017

Is the S&P overvalued at Jan 1 2018 ?

Simple answer to this one is no .
Currently book values are still at just above median level of 3 .
At 3.3 , there is plenty of scope for euphoria to continue and the balloon not to burst .
That said we are into the negative large dip territory halfway through this year . In fact anytime this (or next ) year , we should see that nice 27 % tumble .

There is still quite a wait for 2034 .
When we expect the next stock market Apocalypse , akin to 2008 .

I wish all my followers a Happy New Year and to remain in the 9 per cent .
A struggle that will continue with us all Our Lives .

            bbr391



Friday, 29 December 2017

Making YOU Money , Happy New Year & Other Incidentals

As we slide into 2018 .There is lots to celebrate in the portfolio .
Mainly ,of course , Bill Brown and the team and the recovery at Aortech International . Confidence remains high that more good news will be with Aortech soon in 2018 .
Pathfinder Our second string has also turned towards the more positive side .This one is still a bit of a binary bet , so caution is required . Until an RNS proves a different story & not a never ending story , the saga so far encapsulated , by Giorgio Moroder`s song .

Clear Leisure
Arian Silver
Rurelec

Have been added to the team . A bit of diversity is a good thing .
 Aortech          4K
 Pathfinder      4K
 Clear Leisure 1K
 Arian Silver   1K
 Rurelec          1K


 So we have Increased from 4 to 10K this year . Albeit slow progress , progress It Is .
Of course the offf market shares may still have their day and add to this tally .Who knows 2018 could be a blockbuster .
Most Importantly is that My Glory passes her test in January .

Until then keep safe and keep long .


          bbr391


New Year breakout alikes list

           Arian , Avanti, Wolfe minerals & Amphion.Oilex .

Monday, 25 December 2017

Portfolio Update 25/12/2017

6K Aortech
1K Pathfinder
1K Arian
1K Rurelec
1K Infra. India

Plus 3K BSP
& 3K Metro & Others

  Gives us new highs hitting the new year ,which is 2018 .

Saturday, 16 December 2017

Arian Silver 16/12/2017

Why are we Invested in this perennial waste of space & effort ?
Great question .
Sometimes one looks at these little minnows and thinks that Joe Public have been misinterpreting their potential and cash position .
Arian has silver assets , perhaps lithium and some cash .
At today`s price of 0.2 odd .
This should be a great time to join the Arian Race .
1K is plenty to begin with.


Pathfinder Minerals and the General Chaos theory ,we have built up to a nice 3K in PFP in readiness .
Whether the good news will ever appear seems to be of some heated debate .
Invested sometimes is a case of patience over impatience . This share has been a great example of that thus far 1p in 2012 , the same today . If you want stability the Path is the way .

Our Last & by no means least Investment share Aortech .
Currently 7K @ 40p and expected to rise to a £1 minimum over the coming months .
Given the right news this could surpass Our Dreamy Heights of many years back .

The Off Market mob have been a let down so far & years of patience may well be required to atttain more funds to trade with .

Investing for profit is sure not quick .
Although following my blog many of you should have made great profits ( like Michael) ..

Happy trading All

Good luck to Bill & the team in monetising mayhem .

Monday, 11 December 2017

Thankyou Bill Brown & Aortech

What a glorious day .From here the next couple of years could be huge for Aortech . Our £1 target is now a given in the next few weeks /months .
On the real good news this could one day reach £10 . In about two years or so ,  for those really really patient amongst you . Yiangos that may be YOU .

Don`t forget to buy my champagne and a small share of your profit is in order .

I AM that Good .............


Pathfinder will still await a good piece of news .Which Our Henry has been negotiating quietly in the background . Best of luck On The Path to success .


     bbr391




Saturday, 2 December 2017

Glory Birthday 02/12/2017

Churchill is back , Hoorah you may utter ."Oh dear " I reply it has returned at a nominal value .Many days will pass before any chance of profit will be accrued . Hope remains eternal etc .........

As for Aortech International being right is nice , making profit is essential . Keep buying the trend is in reverse and £1 is achievable . Buy MORE .....

Pathfinder seems to be that good news will out here also .With shareholders adding at 1.3p one should be highly suspicious . Caution needed . But I recommend hold here .

A good week All in All .

Happy Birthday to Glory & Have a great weekend All .


Friday, 24 November 2017

Splendid Aortech / Yiangos & Making YOU Money 25/11/2017

Yiangos ,

We have great news in the offing at Aortech . Thus have continually been accretive of shares .
This weeks news does not spell it out emphatically but gives clear Indication that the Court Case has been agreed . Over $2 million is a given . More would be pleasurable .
Then of course we can concentrate on monetising Aortech`s other hidden patents , Of which Elasteon has huge value , given time .
Over £1 will be broached .

Good to see Off Market Oxus may settle by 2020 . Closely followed by Churchill .
These long running court battles have been very unprofitable for us thus far .

Pathfinder Minerals and the wait for General Agreement has also been a yearly saga .That has now been more than 5 years in the offing . Will the sun ever rise again ?

Aortech        4K
Path              1K
BSP              3K
Churchill      3K
MBH            3K
Other            2K

This is the SUM total of all our owned shares .  Including most of the off market ones .



  Best of Luck All


           bbr391

Friday, 10 November 2017

Making YOU Money 11/11/2017

Great news , all loans and other such debt has been cleared finally .
What we are left with is just three shares of any note , on the market .
They Are
Aortech International .    3K
Pathfinder Minerals         2K
Arian Silver .                    1K
BSP                                   3K

Of course there are the off market shares to keep us amused .

Note an Update by Metro Baltic Horizons (due soon ) ;

I am expecting a final settlement of above 22p including the 4p dividend from last year`s residue & court case costs .
Do Not let the side down please Ronan & Barnaby .
Mr Kenny & Co owe us BIG .

Churchill Mark 2

April 11, 2017 The Secretary-General registers an application for annulment of the award filed by Churchill Mining Plc and Planet Mining Pty Ltd, and notifies the parties of the provisional stay of enforcement of the award.
May 15, 2017 The ad hoc Committee is constituted in accordance with Article 52(3) of the ICSID Convention. Its members are: Dominique Hascher (French), President; Karl-Heinz Böckstiegel (German); and Jean Kalicki (U.S.); all members appointed by the Chairman of the Administrative Council.
May 29, 2017 Churchill Mining Plc and Planet Mining Pty Ltd file a request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.
June 12, 2017 The Republic of Indonesia files observations on Churchill Mining Plc and Planet Mining Pty Ltd’s request to continue the stay of enforcement of the award.
June 20, 2017 The ad hoc Committee holds a first session and a hearing on stay of enforcement by telephone conference.

The ad hoc Committee decides on the continuation of the stay of enforcement of the award.
June 27, 2017 The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on the continuation of the stay of enforcement of the award.
July 14, 2017 The ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 1 concerning procedural matters.
October 20, 2017 The Republic of Indonesia files a counter-memorial on annulment.


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The market continues in the bull run .
Particular note should be made of the China market which is very very cheap ( long term ) . "3400"...




    bbr391